UVa’s COVID-19 Model suggests that, based on current trends, the cases will continue accelerating in Virginia and peak around mid-February at 25,000 per week. By comparison, the state has added about 14,800 during the past seven days.
However, if a surge happens, the state may see up to 45,000 cases, the report said. That surge potential highlights a mix of variables, including colder weather setting in and a Christmas holiday season well known for social activities.
“It is very concerning that national surges are occurring before winter solstice [Dec. 21] and before the holiday season is in full swing,” a researcher wrote in the UVa report.
With more people traveling, gatherings become a point of extreme worry for health officials. It’s estimated, by UVa, that 1 in 3 gatherings with 20 people are expected to have at least one person with COVID-19.
Since the pandemic began the West Piedmont Health District now has totaled 4,155 cases, 105 deaths and 354 hospitalizations. The latest totals across the district:
- Henry County: 1,712 cases, 165 hospitalizations, 40 deaths.
- Martinsville: 624, 75, 24.
- Patrick County: 422, 62, 28.
- Franklin County: 1,397, 52, 13.
By comparison Danville has reported 1,506 cases (48 deaths), and Pittsylvania County has had 1,586 (22 deaths).