The LARGEST Wealth Transfer has just begun while the markets begin to plummet – here’s my strategy and how to invest in a recession. Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan – Trade Bitcoin, Doge, and other crypto with zero fees on FTX. Use my referral code GRAHAM and get up to $100 FOR FREE: https://ftx.us/partners/graham
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THE LARGEST WEALTH TRANSFER:
There IS some good news, in the fact that – NOW could be the great opportunity to invest, because…THIS where the money is made.
In terms of the AVERAGE bull market…if we DON’T include drops of less than 20%, the AVERAGE bull market has lasted 9.1 YEARS with a cumulative return of 476%. If we INCLUDE drops of LESS than 20%, which are more like minor hiccups along the way…the AVERAGE Bull Market still lasts an average of 4 YEARS, with a cumulative return of 129%.
But, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the next bull market is going to last for 48 months…because, if we start going back in history.…since 1940, the shortest Bull Market we have EVER HAD was just after the Dot Com bubble where the markets rose 21.4% over 3.4 months, before then declining another 33.8% during the FOLLOWING 9 months.
We also have a very BRIEF period where the markets rose 24% during the Great Recession over 1.5 months, before then falling another 27% 2 months later.
During the Great Depression, there are plenty of examples bull markets lasting just DAYS…like, a 23 DAY LONG Bull market, with a 25% gain. After that, there was a 42% drop…followed by another 1 months of a bull market going back up 30%.
So, just given this context…even though, on average, bull markets do LAST LONGER than bear markets…history has shown us that volatility is EXTREMELY COMMON, and seeing drops or gains of 20% in either direction isn’t as extreme as you would think.
It’s also shown that “Half of the S&P 500 Index’s strongest days in the last 20 years occurred during a bear market. Another 34% of the market’s best days took place in the first two months of a bull market—before it was clear a bull market had begun.”
The fact is, if you buy consistently, on a regular basis, regardless of where the market is trading, with the intention of holding for at least 10-20 years…historically…you would have NEVER LOST MONEY…yeah, seriously…if you just buy a set amount, on auto-pilot, without panicking and timing the market…you’ll typically make more money, AND faster, than anyone else with a different strategy.
“All I’m getting at is, in each of these market crashes, it could be argued that “this time is different” – and, indeed, it IS different. No two bear markets are ever going to be the same, and once we run out of UNKNOWNS for what will happen in the markets – I believe stocks will begin to recover. No idea how long that’ll take, BUT…I have a feeling we’ll be able to look back at THIS, and see it as one of the best buying opportunities out there.”*
*That’s what I said at the LOWEST POINT OF THE MARKET ON March 20th, 2020…and THAT is what I believe, today. That’s certainly NOT to say it can’t drop even more, and hey…it might…BUT, for anyone who has ever commented or wished that they could’ve invested in early 2020…well, in a way, now is your chance.
As Warren Buffet says: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
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